In 2 years, 2 billion will get swine flu- WHO
Kounteya Sinha, TNN
NEW DELHI- Two billion - that's the number of people that the World Health Organisation (WHO) has estimated will get infected with the deadly H1N1 influenza virus in the next two years. Earlier pandemics have infected one-third of the world's population. But this virus is especially dangerous.
Why? Because it is brand new, one nobody has seen before. And this means that everyone on this planet is immunologically vulnerable. The threat is clear from the way the virus has spread till now. Over 160 countries have already confirmed over 130,000 cases, with the virus spreading as much in less than six weeks as past pandemic flu viruses spread in more than six months.
WHO has already designated this as the "planet's fastest-moving pandemic". In most countries, those mostly infected belong to the age group of 12 to 17 years. However, persons requiring hospitalization and patients with fatal illness have been found to be slightly older. Almost 800 people have died from it in the past four months - more than what the H5N1 bird flu strain has killed in six years.
India is now worried and says it's just a matter of time before the country starts to see large scale community clusters of the virus.
According to Randeep Guleria, professor of medicine at AIIMS, who has also helped prepare India's treatment protocol, weather conditions like the end of monsoon and the winter months will be perfect for the H1N1 virus to thrive. "The current strain of H1N1 has high transmissibility rate which the H5N1 bird flu virus did not. Overcrowding in India will see the H1N1 virus spread very fast in the community in the post-monsoon months. And since it is a new virus, there is no herd immunity against it," Dr Guleria said.
An internal government estimate says that 3-5 million people will be required to be vaccinated soon after the full-fledged pandemic hits India.
"This would include health workers, police, customs and emergency relief workers - those who will work towards containing the pandemic. Then will be the high risk groups - the aged and those with underlying health conditions like diabetes, obesity and cardio-vascular disease," a health ministry official said. Globally, experts have reported five isolated cases of the H1N1 virus showing resistance to Tamiflu, the anti-viral of choice. But no changes to the virus' behaviour have been detected for now.
"But how it could potentially change and whether it mutates to become worse over the coming weeks is still unknown," WHO's spokesperson Gregory Hartl said.
Health officials in India are trying to determine which groups are most likely to get severely ill so measures to best protect them can be taken. A crucial meeting is scheduled next week to finalise the priority list. Drug makers in India have also started working on a vaccine to fight the scourge.
The Drug Controller General has given licence to three vaccine manufacturers to import WHO released seed strains for producing the H1N1 vaccine. "Serum Institute, Panacea and Bharat Biotech are the three companies working in India to make a vaccine against H1N1," NICD director Dr Shiv Lal said. WHO is, meanwhile, supporting three other companies in three countries - India, Thailand and Indonesia - to make an H1N1 vaccine.
